Zijin Mining (601899): Effective transformation of resource advantages, embrace and embrace value leaders

Zijin Mining (601899): Effective transformation of resource advantages, embrace and embrace value leaders
Resource reserves continue to increase, and mine output is about to rank among the first international echelons.The company adheres to the resource-first strategy. Through counter-cyclical high-quality resource mergers and acquisitions, and continuous mineral exploration and development investment, it has copper metal resource reserves of more than 5,700 tons, gold resource reserves of 2,200 tons (including Colombia’s Burritica), and zinc and lead metal quantities of nearly 1,000., Ranking among the top in the world.With the large-scale overseas projects put into 重庆耍耍网 operation in the next three years, it is expected that the company’s mineral copper output will exceed 70 millimeters by 2022, ranking first in the industry. Historical experience proves that the company has a unique vision of investment and has an industry-leading development and construction capability.The company’s acquisition of overseas projects has a strategic layout and rich international management experience. The acquisition of the Congo (Gold) Camoa copper mine in 2015, the Timok copper-gold mine in 2018, and the Buritica gold mine in 2019 all show the company’s economic performance.It has the ability to grasp the cycle and acquire high-grade mining projects in locations where the value of resources is underestimated.At the same time, design and construction integration and large-scale development capabilities are another important advantage of the company.The company 厦门夜网 is one of the few mining companies in the world with systematic independent technology management capabilities. It attracts the cultivation of high-end technical and mining talents, expands its internal management capabilities, and accumulates valuable experience in the development and construction of many years. The price of gold has stabilized.Gold prices will continue to rise in 2020.First, the ease of global monetary policy is positive for gold prices.Second, the current uncertainties in the global economy are still contradictory. Risks such as trade frictions and geopolitics in the Middle East are constantly emerging, which may increase the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset in international markets.Make up for gold mine production or continue to decline in the future.Copper prices have bottomed out trying to maintain stability.Although the short-term economy is affected, the long-term domestic copper demand logic will not be changed in the medium and long term, and the copper price hub will not continue to decrease.The development of counter-cyclical adjustment policies may provide support to related industries and stabilize internal copper demand.In the medium term, global copper demand as a whole is still lacking bright spots, and the sharp rise in copper prices may also be small.Supply Global copper ore supply will remain tight in 2020. Performance ushered in explosive growth, raised earnings forecasts and given a “buy” rating!As the company’s overseas projects are put into production, the company’s performance will be significantly improved in the next three years.Taking into account the financial costs of new project acquisitions, we slightly cut our 2019 profit forecast to 42.1 ppm (original value 42.700 million).Due to the commissioning of the newly acquired gold mine project in 2020 and the accelerated commissioning of the Kamoa and Timok projects, we raised our profit forecast for 2020 and 2021 to 53.100 million, 73.0 billion (original value 49.300 million, 52.400 million), adding a profit forecast for 2022 of 93.1000000000.Attributable net profit growth rates were 3%, 26%, 37%, 28%, corresponding to dynamic PE of 25X / 20X / 15X / 12X.We believe that the company has excellent growth and should at least enjoy the evaluation of the copper industry. We conservatively give 26 times PE for 20 years, 30% away from the current space, and give a “Buy” rating! The investment rating and evaluation of investment cases in the next three years will be significantly improved. We will raise our profit forecast and give a “buy” rating.Taking into account the financial costs of new project acquisitions, we slightly cut our 2019 profit forecast to 42.1 ppm (original value 42.700 million).Due to the commissioning of the newly acquired gold mine project in 2020 and the accelerated commissioning of the Kamoa and Timok projects, we raised our profit forecast for 2020 and 2021 to 53.100 million, 73.0 billion (original value 49.300 million, 52.400 million), adding a profit forecast for 2022 of 93.1000000000.Attributable net profit growth rates were 3%, 26%, 37%, 28%, corresponding to dynamic PE of 25X / 20X / 15X / 12X.We believe that the company has excellent growth and should at least enjoy the evaluation premium of the copper industry, so we conservatively give 26 times PE in 2020, 30% away from the current space, and give a “buy” rating! The key assumptions are that the average SHFE copper prices by 2020-2022 are 48144 yuan / ton, 48626 yuan / ton, 48140 yuan / ton, and the average SHFE gold prices are 323 yuan / gram, 327 yuan / gram, and 320 yuan / gram., SHFE zinc average price is 18792 yuan / ton, 18792 yuan / ton, 19167 yuan / ton. It is estimated that the company’s mine copper output in 2019-2022 will be 37 lengths, 41 lengths, 55 inches, and 71 tons.The annual output of mineral gold is 41 tons, 44 tons, 46 tons, 55 tons.The mine zinc output is 37 ingots, 40 ingots, 390,000, and 38 ingots. Different from the public, the market generally believes that the company has been inelastic due to the simultaneous operation of base metal and precious metal varieties.We believe that the business philosophy of “giving equal attention to gold and copper” guarantees that the company has superior varieties in different cycle positions and is conducive to sustainable development.This model makes the company’s cash flow more stable and ensures that the company has the ability to make outsourcing acquisitions of high-quality projects at a low point of a single product boom.In the long run, the company has its own independent growth attributes in the cyclic industry, and this determined high growth should give Zijin a relative estimated premium. Some investors believe that the newly acquired Serbian RTB bor copper mine of the company is not high grade, the company has accumulated personnel, operating burden, and the acquisition revenue is not ideal.In fact, the company’s strategic acquisition of two major projects, RTB bor and Serbia Timok, is conducive to the complementary advantages of the two projects in terms of personnel and smelting raw materials.At the same time, Zijin Mining has expanded outstanding technical and experience advantages in the large-scale development and processing of low-grade mines, promoted technological transformation and expansion, and the development cost of low-grade mines in RTB bor Copper continued to increase. Catalysts for sustainable performance In the second half of 2021 (gold) Kamoa copper mine, Serbia’s Timok upper-belt mines are successfully put into operation. Economic recovery is driving the core assumptions of rising international copper prices. Risks Overseas projects put into operation are less than expected, and the economic downturn has dragged down copper and zinc.price

Huayou Cobalt (603799): Benefiting from the rebound in cobalt prices, profit continued to improve month-on-month

Huayou Cobalt (603799): Benefiting from the rebound in cobalt prices, profit continued to improve month-on-month

Event: On the evening of the 28th, the company released the report for the third quarter of 2019 and achieved operating income of 140 in the first three quarters of 2019.

2.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39%, net profit attributable to mothers was 92.76 million, a year-on-year 95.

15%.

Of which 19Q3 operating income was 49.

19 billion, a year-on-year increase of +49.

49%, net profit attributable to mother is 59.93 million, yoy-85.

17%.

  Core point of view The scale of revenue has maintained rapid growth, and the leading features are obvious.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the price of cobalt continued to decline. When the industry was weak, the company took the initiative to adjust its product structure, increase the release of copper product capacity and trade income, and achieved a 39% increase in operating income in the first three quarters.

The company’s replenishment of cobalt products in the first three quarters was approximately 1.

9 Initially, the annual growth rate is 16%; the amount of copper products added is about 4.

5 Initially, the annual growth rate is about 59%, driving the company’s overall revenue scale to a new level.

The price of cobalt rebounded at the bottom, and Q3 performance improved significantly.

The decline in the price of cobalt has changed the company’s profit growth rate. Affected by high-priced inventory, the net profit attributable to the mother in the first half of the year was 32.83 million yuan, with 97 replacements each time.

82%.

Since the end of July, through the bottom of the cobalt price, the company’s third-quarter profit has improved significantly, achieving a net profit of 5,993 million in a single quarter, changing to 85.

17%, an increase of 193%.

  Affected by Glencore’s suspension of the Mutanda copper-cobalt mine, the supply and demand of cobalt is expected to reverse in 2020. The price of cobalt will continue to increase gradually, and the company’s profit will further increase.

Fixed layout lithium battery materials, high nickel precursors facing the world.

The 重庆耍耍网 company’s strategic transformation of lithium battery materials has continued its pace, transformed Huahai New Energy into the listed company system, and its precursor production capacity reached 4 inches.

The N65 series products have entered the C-certification stage of Volkswagen’s MEB platform, Nissan-Renault Alliance, Ford and other world-renowned brand cars, and reached close to 7 times in three years with customers to comply with binding provisions, effectively improving the company’s impactAnd market share.

  Financial forecast and investment advice Based on the company’s third quarter profitability and judgment on future cobalt prices, adjust the company’s profit forecast for 19-21 to achieve operating income of 192.038 / 292 billion (the original forecast value was 192.018.25 billion).Net profit attributable to mother 四川耍耍网 3.
.

65/10.

37/15.

3 ppm (previous forecast).

54/12.

92/15.

98 thousand yuan), the corresponding eps are 0.

34/0.

96/1.

42 yuan, with an average assessment of 31 times in 2020 based on comparable companies, and raised the target price to 29.

76 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

  The risk indicates that the production capacity is not as expected; the product sales are not as expected.

Yunnan Aluminum (000807) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Q3 Aluminum Prices Rise, Raw Material Prices Decrease, Performance Improves

Yunnan Aluminum (000807) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Q3 Aluminum Prices Rise, Raw Material Prices Decrease, Performance Improves

Event: In the first three quarters of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 179.

3.9 billion, an increase of 12 every year.

80%, realizing net profit attributable to mother 2.

9.2 billion, up 164 previously.

37%, net profit after deducting non-return to mother 1.

850,000 yuan, an annual increase of 100.

47%.

In the third quarter alone, the company achieved revenue of 70.

94 ppm, an increase of 30 per year.

91%, net profit attributable to mother 1.

31 ppm, an increase of 111 per year.

17%, net profit after deduction is 0.

92 million, up 66 each year.

17%.

  Opinion: The reason for the company’s third quarter net profit growth: Since the third quarter, due to safety production accidents and severe weather, domestic electrolytic aluminum companies have stopped reducing production and gradually expanded their production capacity by nearly 100 tons. As a result, electrolytic aluminum has grown steadily.The average aluminum price remained at 13,959.

77 yuan / ton, up 3 before.

2%, while the price of raw material alumina has continued to decline, and has gradually decreased by 9 since Q3.

13%.

  The company’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been expanded in an orderly manner. Through the company’s electrolytic aluminum projects such as Heqing, Zhaotong and Wenshan, the company’s electrolytic aluminum production capacity is expected 武汉夜生活网 to reach 300 kilowatts in 2021.

It is estimated that the company’s electrolytic aluminum output in 2019 will be 189 and the minimum value of 150 alumina.

The company’s production capacity expanded in an orderly manner.

  The Wenshan bauxite project is advancing steadily, and the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials is expected to further increase the company’s retained bauxite reserves by about 1.

7 billion tons, with a mining life of 64 years. In 2020, the Wenshan bauxite project is expected to be put into operation, which will increase another 300 tons of bauxite supply and further increase the self-sufficiency rate of raw materials.

  Maintain “Overweight” rating: Based on the company’s steady development, we maintain our previous profit forecast.
2021 net profit is 2.

64/1.

97/2.

870,000 yuan, corresponding to 0 EPS.

10/0.

08/0.

11 yuan, we maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.

  Risk reminder: the new electrolytic aluminum project puts into operation more than expected and the price of alumina changes.

Kitakami funds fancy alcoholic wine list increase by more than 600% per week

Kitakami funds fancy alcoholic wine list increase by more than 600% per week

Kitakami Capital favored this liquor stock, with a weekly increase of over 600%!

Many white horse stocks have been underweight, and it is actually the first one!

  Source: E company official Weibei Fund continued to reduce its holdings of high-priced white horse stocks in the first half of this week, resulting in net sales for 3 consecutive days.

In the second half of the week, against the background of the expected increase in interest rate cuts in the United States, risk appetite improved and rebounded. Kitakami Capital’s net purchases continued for 2 days.

This week, Kitakami funds sold a total of 39.

6.8 billion yuan.

  In terms of markets, the Shanghai Stock Connect has sold 35 nets this week.

9.7 billion yuan, Shenzhen Stock Connect sold 3.

7.1 billion yuan, showing that the Shanghai Stock Connect selling pressure this week is much stronger than the Shenzhen Stock Connect.

Because A shares are generally weak this week, the capital of the north is also mainly wait-and-see. This Wednesday, it hit a minimum volume of US $ 27.1 billion after the Spring Festival.

This week, the total turnover of funds from the north was 151.6 billion yuan, which is also the lowest level this year.

  Significantly Masakura Jiujiu Jiujiu Jiujiu announced on Monday evening that the liquor industry’s first 2019 first half performance report.

Data show that in the first half of 2019, Jiuguijiu achieved operating income7.

09ppm, an annual increase of more than 35%, net profit1.

USD 5.6 billion, a 36% annual increase.

Moreover, the growth rate of alcoholic wine in the first quarter was only 16.

18%, the net profit growth rate in the first half of the year was as high as 36%, indicating that the growth rate of alcoholic wine net profit has accelerated.

  Jiuguijiu’s strong performance in the second quarter also firmly attracted the attention of the capital.

Last weekend, Kitakami Capital only held 470,000 shares of Jiuguijiu. This week, it slightly increased its position to 540,000 shares. On Tuesday, it announced the results of the report.Drive high and go for a daily limit.

On Wednesday, Kitakami Capital continued to make a large-scale increase of 2.4 million shares of Jiujiu Jiujiu, and its position increased to 4.23 million shares.

Although the position has been lightened since then, it still holds 3.54 million shares, increasing the position by as much as 653%, making it the highest stock in the North Capital Fund this week.

  The industries with a critical margin of capital appreciation this week are mainly concentrated in the four industries of communications, automotive, pharmaceutical and biological, and chemical.

Among them, 28 shares of Tianyong Smart, Nanjing Panda, Kaili Medical, and Yahua Group have been doubled by Beijing Capital.

  Since June, Kitakami Capital has steadily increased its holdings of HTC Electronics. The position has increased from 10,000 shares at the beginning of June to 1.49 million shares this Monday. HTC Electronics has 杭州桑拿 also steadily increased over the recent rise of the channel.

But as of this Tuesday, Kitakami funds suddenly cashed in a large amount to sell 1.39 million shares of HTC Electronics, and then sold slightly in the next 3 trading days, leaving only 3 on the weekend.

50,000 shares, almost a liquidation-type reduction, becoming one of the largest stock reductions this week.

  7 stocks such as Meichen Ecology, Chuanheng Shares, Aotejia, and AVIC Sunda have also been almost cleared by Beihang Capital this week.

  Pursuing the rise of strong new materials Due to the severe environmental supervision, the major provinces of phosphorus chemical industry started to stop self-examination, which led to the yellow phosphorus price rising 2200 yuan / ton on July 9 and the quoted price was 16635 yuan / ton, with a single-day increase of up to 15.

twenty four%.

The slenderness caused the phosphorus chemical stocks to rise sharply this week. The leading stock Chengxing shares (right protection) has 3 consecutive daily limits, and this week has gradually increased by 35.

65% of the stocks of Beishang Capital held the largest weekly increase. Unfortunately, Beishang Capital only held 7033 shares.

  On Tuesday, the United States will waive high tariffs on 110 Chinese medical products and electronic components.

As a result, A-share medical stocks rose significantly. Jiu An Medical also stopped rising for three consecutive times, with a weekly increase of 26.

19%, the second largest stock in the weekly increase in Beishang Capital.

Kitakami Capital has held more than 100,000 shares of Jiu’an Medical for many years. From the perspective of Jiu’an Medical Trend, even after three daily limits, there is a high probability that Kitakami Capital’s shareholding will still be locked up.

  In addition, Japan imposed export restrictions on South Korea for fluorinated polyimide, graphite rubber, and hydrogen fluoride, two key semiconductor raw materials for semiconductor production. Korean manufacturers turned to China as a substitute for supply of bonding materials.Alternative possibilities.

The powerful new material of main graphite rubber has 3 daily limits on 5 trading days this week, and the weekly increase is 21.

68%, becoming the third largest stock of this week’s capital holdings.  But Kitakami Capital also made little profit on strong new materials.

Originally, at the end of June, the capital of Beishang also held 2.22 million shares of strong new materials. On July 1st (the day when Hong Kong was closed for celebration), the strong new materials had just started to rise from the bottom and rose to the first daily limit. On July 2nd, the capital of Northbound was in a hurry.Has sold more than 530,000 shares, and on the 4th and 5th adjustments, 740,000 shares were sold.

That is to say, Kitakami Capital sold most of its positions at the bottom, with only about 340,000 shares remaining on Tuesday, and when it expanded to a high level, it added to the 920,000 shares this weekend.

  With the advent of the peak tourist season in the summer vacation, China National Tourism Administration has always maintained a strong position.

In contrast to the previous state of continuous reductions in capital, Kitakami Capital increased its holdings of China National Travel Service 2 this week.

900 million US dollars, this week to become the largest capital increase in stocks.

14 stocks including Weichai Power, Mindray Medical, Midland Health, and Biylefen also increased their capital by over 100 million yuan this week.

  This week, Kitakami Capital continued to significantly reduce its holdings and merged the high-level White Horse stocks.

Ping An of China was net sold more than 1 billion US dollars. This week, the stocks with the largest net market value of Beishang Fund, Wuliangye, Guizhou Moutai, Gree Electric and other stocks with the highest market capitalization of Beishang Fund, were net sold by Beishang Fund separately6.

2.3 billion, 3.

9.8 billion yuan, 2.

04 billion.

21 shares of Hikvision, Lixun Precision, Huayu Automobile, and CITIC Securities were also reduced by more than 100 million yuan.

Shentong Express (002468): Intensified market competition weighs on performance and is bullish on refined management

Shentong Express (002468): Intensified market competition weighs on performance and is bullish on refined management

Event: Shentong Express released the semi-annual report for 2019.

2019H1 operating income 98.

71 ppm, an increase of 48 in ten years.

62%, net profit attributable to mother 8.

32 ppm, a decrease of 4 per year.

04%, deducting non-net profit 7.

8.2 billion, down 5 every year.

74%.

2019Q2 revenue 53.

64 ppm, an increase of 43 in ten years.

57%, net profit attributable to mother 4.

27 ppm, a decrease of 12 per year.

73%.

Opinion: Increase in gross profit margin due to price war.

In the first half of 2019, the company completed a business volume of about 30.

1.2 billion pieces, an annual increase of 47.

25%, market share is 10.

85%, expanding by 1 every year.

59%.

Single ticket information service income is 0.

53 yuan, down 25 before.

85%, mainly due to intensified market competition. In order to maintain and expand business, the company’s face-to-face rebate has increased; single ticket transfer income1.

05 yuan, mainly due to the merger of the same period last year, the company added 13 directly under the transfer center, resulting in single ticket transfer income increased; single ticket paid delivery income1.

61 yuan, down 7 every year.

97%, mainly due to the company’s fine-tuning of the fee distribution rules according to business development needs, resulting in a small decline in the overall fee distribution.

The company’s gross profit margin fell by 5.

36 points to 13.

78%, mainly due to the increase in face-to-face rebates and fine adjustments to pricing rules.

In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio increased by 0.

01pct to 0.

64%, mainly due to the increase in business volume and the corresponding increase in labor costs of sales personnel; the management expense ratio and research and development expense ratio increased by 0.

64pct to 2.

92%, mainly due to the increase in the degree of refinement in management and the corresponding increase in labor costs of managers; the financial 武汉桑拿 expense ratio increased by 0.

54 points to -0.

33%, mainly due to the decrease in interest income.

The refined management is gradually implemented, waiting for the cost to improve.

1) In the first half of 2019, the company added 24 sets of automated cross-belt sorting systems to further reduce the cost of transfer operations.

2) In terms of models, the company has a total of 13.More than 2500 mainline transportation vehicles with a height of more than 5 meters have gradually reduced the transportation cost of single tickets through scale effects.

3) In terms of service quality, the effective interest rate of Shentong Express in the first half of the year showed a rapid downward trend from month to month, and the national average reached 0 parts per million.

04.

Ali plans to purchase more Shentong Express, and the future is promising.

Alibaba plans to 四川耍耍网 purchase 31 more listed companies.

349% equity, acquired within three years from December 28, 2019. After all exercise, Alibaba will hold 46% equity of the listed company.

Alibaba’s purchase of the company’s equity will help listed companies complete the restructuring and upgrading of their main business as soon as possible, and will help the listed company’s long-term profitability investment strategy: Affected by the price war, we lower our profit forecast and predict the company’s net profit in 2019-2021.

7.9 billion, 25.

470,000 yuan, 32.

15 ppm, an increase of ten years.

5%, 22.

5%, 26.

2%, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: the risk caused by market competition, the growth of e-commerce, such as Pinduoduo, is less than expected.

Yuanzu Shares (603886): Accounting adjustments for short-term contributions and steady expansion of performance to ensure long-term growth

Yuanzu Shares (603886): Accounting adjustments for short-term contributions and steady expansion of performance to ensure long-term growth

Incident company announced the 2019 half-year performance report in the first half of 2019, the company realized operating 北京夜网 income8.

33 trillion, +15 for ten years.

33%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is 3541.

470,000 yuan, +35 a year.

63%; realized profit of 0.

15 yuan, +36 for ten years.

36%.

  Brief comment on the steady increase in revenue in 2019H1 The company achieved revenue8.

3.3 billion, ten years +15.

33%, single Q2 income 4.

9.2 billion, +10 in ten years.

98%.

The company’s revenue continued to grow steadily, and the company continued to carry forward unclaimed Yuanzuka confirmed revenue. H1 carried out long-term unclaimed sleep card carryover revenue of about RMB 3,200 million, an increase of about 26 million in the same period last year; expansionThe reporting companies continued to strengthen their marketing and marketing channels, speeded up store construction, and steadily contributed revenue.

  Adjustments to accounting standards contributed to profits, expenses increased in 2019H1 The company realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies 3541.

470,000 yuan, +35 a year.

63%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 42.23 million in a single quarter, and -17% thereafter.

  Initial profit growth in the first half of the year. Increased revenue growth drives profit growth, while cost control is better, and the cost of the main business has decreased by 1 percentage point accordingly. For a long time, the company has not received sleep card carryover income for a long time.Million, directly contributed to profit growth.

In addition, the main factors affecting H1’s profit performance are: 1. The company increased its personnel and advertising expenses, and its sales expenses increased by 49.8 million; 2. The company’s external donations increased by 4.21 million, and the original POS software was scrapped by 3.63 million, resulting in non-operating expensesIncrease; 3. Increasing profits and expenses of the company led to an increase of 10.07 million yuan in expenses.

  The decline in the profit of the single Q2 company decreased mainly due to the expansion of channel marketing during the reporting period. Employment and advertising costs increased significantly (an increase of about 23 million). At the same time, the increase in non-operating expenses was mainly reflected in Q2, and factors such as increased revenue led to Q2.Profit growth was affected.

  Rich categories and steady growth. The company has four series of cakes, moon cakes, fruit and other Chinese and Western pastries, with a total of more than 100 products. In the future, new flavors such as the benchmark product “Snow Moon Cakes” will be introduced to the market to meet consumer demand.

From the perspective of cake products, there are some differences in the pricing of the company’s overall gift attributes, and the room for price increases is relatively large. Other product lines continue to optimize the structure, maintain the update rate, and improve profitability.

In terms of channels, we have continued to improve off-site delivery. Until the end of 2018, there were 631 stores nationwide and a net increase of 40 vertically. This year, the company continues to expand the number of offline stores and expects to open 70+ new stores.

In addition, the company refurbished its stores to bring more refined consumption scenarios to consumers. Online e-commerce has increased cooperation with e-commerce platforms, and its performance is outstanding.

At the same time, the company has solved the problem of insufficient talent reserves in management and actively carried out training to ensure that the quality and quantity of store managers are in line with the store expansion progress.

  Profit forecast The company’s four major segments are growing steadily. The new product rate (including upgrades) is about 30% each year. The store expansion is steadily advancing. It is expected that about 70 new stores will be opened in 19. The net increase of stores is expected to be controlled at 30+. The company maintains a goodThe newly opened consumption ratio, while steadily increasing the number of stores, strives to improve the profitability of single stores.

It is expected that the company’s net profit will be 310 in 2019-2021.

57, 353.

79 and 398.

15 million yuan, corresponding to EPS 1.

29, 1.

47 and 1.

66 yuan / share.

  Risk warning: food safety risks, raw material cost price risks, company operating risks, and channel expansion are less than expected risks.

Zhonggong Education (002607): New product expansion highlights the leader and further consolidates

Zhonggong Education (002607): New product expansion highlights the leader and further consolidates

2019 Semi-annual Report Review: The company released the 2019 semi-annual report: The company achieved operating income of 36.

4 billion (+ 48% YoY).

8%), net profit attributable to mother 4.

9 billion (+132 year-on-year.

2%), deducting non-net profit 4.

700 million (+138 compared to the same period last year).

8%).

In Q1 and Q2 2019, revenue growth rates were 61.

9%, 42.

3%.

  The operating income has grown rapidly, and the leading advantages of the 厦门夜网 industry are prominent.

The company reported a significant increase in first-level operating income, with 178 training sessions.

900,000, (+44.

35%).

Among them, the number of face-to-face training was 93.

09 thousand (+30 compared with the same period last year).

80%); 85 online training sessions.

810,000 (+62 y / y).

64%).

Civil service.

Among them, the civil service was affected by the industry’s shrinking recruitment and continued to grow against the trend, with a growth rate of about 10%; the number of online business registrations increased rapidly, mainly due to the rapid increase in the number of job applicants.

In terms of customer unit price, the company’s leading effect is significant. The customer unit price that takes full advantage of its own content has further increased, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of long-term courses. The average customer unit price for civil servants increased by 15% last year; the overall customer unit price exceeded 15%.

  The civil service has the largest operating income ratio, and new categories of business have blossomed.

Breaking down by product, the face-to-face income of civil servants is approximately 18.

1.9 billion (+ 26% year-on-year.

32%), and its revenue accounted for 50% (YoY-8.

89pct); public face-to-face business 2.

15 billion (+7 year-on-year.

01%), and its revenue ratio is 5.

9% (-2% YoY).

31pct); teacher product face-to-face business 4.

32 billion (+ 52% year-on-year.

18%), and its revenue ratio is 11.

89% (0% YoY).

27 points); comprehensive face-to-face business 7.

2.0 billion (+ 89% year-on-year.

43%), with a revenue share of 19.

30% (4 compared to the same period last year.13pct).

Among them, the civil service business still accounts for the first proportion, but the proportion gradually decreases, mainly due to the gradual consolidation of the civil service business companies in the industry, and in the context of civil service contraction, the increase in market share and customer unit price has led to the promotion of civil service business;At the same time, the company’s other businesses are developing rapidly, and the recruitment of teachers and grass-roots public service positions has formed a new growth pole. The trend of consumption expansion in the public sector is obvious. Public services have natural grass-roots attributes. Therefore, more and more recruited positions come fromTeachers and grass-roots positions such as doctors and police; vocational skills such as postgraduate entrance examinations and IT training, and rapid growth of training, thanks to the company’s replication of the main business operation method, through professional development of large-scale full-time faculty and refined operation services,Innovated the industry’s business model, created new supplies, and won the trust of this book.

  The company’s operating efficiency has been further improved and its profitability has been significantly improved.

Online business was further cultivated, and the application of the dual teacher model was further expanded.

The company report initiated the initiation of an integrated and collaborative re-engineering of the entire business system, which can monitor the dynamic market progress online, from management to service to reorganization of publications.

Through the launch and replacement of the new CRM system and teaching assistance system, the company’s efficiency was improved, and the expense ratio was significantly improved during the 1H19 period.

6 pct, of which the selling expense ratio is 18.

6% (YoY-3.

3pct); management expense rate 13.

7% (-2% YoY).

3pct); R & D expense ratio 8.

4% (+0 year-on-year.

03pct); financial expense ratio 1.

2% (+ 1% year-on-year.

0pct).

1H19 comprehensive gross profit margin rose by 2.

2 points to 57.

5%, 1Q / 2Q each increase by 3.

0/1.

7 pct.

  The channel sinks steadily and the Trinity’s operating foundation highlights the company’s strength.

As of the end of the 1H19 period, the company directly operated 880 outlets, covering 31 provinces and cities and 319 prefecture-level cities, an increase of 25 from the 701 outlets at the end of 2018.

5%.

  Reserve talents: As of 1H19, the company has a total of 30,790 employees, 1946 full-time R & D personnel, and 11,604 full-time teachers, at the end of 2018.

7% / 44.

2% / 23.

1%.

The company has formed a management team composed of a large number of outstanding managers, and has established a profit forecast of an efficient management system that is highly adaptable to the characteristics of the industry: it is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother will be 16 in 2019-2020.

62, 22.

43 megabytes, with a one-year growth rate of 45% and 30% respectively. The latest closing price corresponds to a PE of 2019 of 57x and a reasonable value of 16.

5 yuan, give a “buy” rating . risk warning: policy risks, new business start-up is not smooth, the participation rate improved less than expected, etc.

New Hope (000876): The pig price rise determines the progress and cost control of the slaughter still needs attention

New Hope (000876): The pig price rise determines the progress and cost control of the 四川耍耍网 slaughter still needs attention

Net profit attributable to mother in the first quarter of 19 + 10.

38%, in line with expectations. New Hope’s 1Q19 results announced: revenue increase +9.

49% to 162.

1.2 billion, deducted non-net profit +20 for ten years.

06% to 7.

2.4 billion, net profit attributable to mother +10 for ten years.

38% to 6.

660,000 yuan, budget profit 0.

16 yuan, performance in line with expectations.

1) Stable overall operation: gross profit margin +10 for ten years.

8 points to 9.

1%, period rate +0 per second.

2 points to 6.

7%, net interest rate 4.

1% remained the same; 2) We judged the differences in the performance of the livestock and poultry business: 1Q19 poultry prices were high, and the profit of poultry feed and livestock business was good; while 1Q19 pig prices bottomed out, the company’s pig feed sales and hog breeding performance were under pressure; 3)Company 1Q19 pig sales 68.

260,000 heads, with an average weight of 111 kg, the pace of going out is slightly slower than market expectations; the average selling price is 13.

0 yuan / thousand pounds. Considering the increase in the cost of epidemic prevention, we judge that the minimum cost cannot be covered in the current quarter, and the pig breeding business is a drag on performance.

Development trend The rising price of pig prices is determined, and the progress of slaughtering and cost control still need attention: the company ‘s poor performance expectations mainly come from the pig breeding business, pig prices, slaughtering, and cost are the key factors: 1) we are optimistic about the upward trend of pig prices, and the capacity of this round of cyclesThe cleanliness has exceeded the previous round, and if the epidemic situation in the second quarter is exacerbated by the spread of mosquitoes, pig prices are expected to rise again. We judge that the price of pigs will increase by more than 25% this year. Next year, prices are expected to refresh historical highs, which will benefit the company’s performance.2) Under the market’s optimistic expectations, the company will produce about 3.5 / 8 million heads in 2019/2020, but the company currently has only 80,000 sows on hand, corresponding to 2.5 million live pigs; and we judge that in the context of the epidemic, breedingThe rate of new production capacity of enterprises is generally slower than expected, so we are more cautious in judging the company’s production volume than the market; 3) At present, the average increase in the epidemic prevention cost of breeding companies is mainly from labor, the increase of epidemic prevention equipment, and the death rate has increased. We judgeThis year, the cost of epidemic prevention of large-scale breeding companies generally increased1?
3 yuan / kg, the full cost will be more than 14 yuan.

For New Hope, because the sow inventory is not enough to support the goal, the company still needs to rely on external purchase of piglets to supplement, but when the pig price rises, the cost of piglets will increase significantly, making the company’s cost management difficult.

On the whole, we are optimistic that the rising pig price will boost the company’s performance, but we remain cautious about the company’s delisting progress and cost control.

Earnings forecast We maintain our 2019/2020 attributable net profit forecast unchanged.

The estimates and the proposed adjustments correspond to the 24/21 multiple estimates for 2019/2020. If the market value of the financial business is excluded, the company’s agricultural and animal husbandry business corresponds to the 52/41 multiple estimates for 2019/2020, because the current estimate level has reflected the market’s impact on the company in 2020.The optimistic expectation of the number of pigs on the market (and under the background of the epidemic, there is uncertainty about whether the company can achieve the expected market), we maintain the neutral rating and the target price of 15 yuan unchanged, and the target price corresponds to 23/20 times 2019/2020 price-earnings ratioFor example, excluding the market value of financial services, the agriculture and animal husbandry business corresponds to a 49/38 multiple change in 2019/2020, and the target price corresponds to -5% of the moving space.

Risky pig production volume is less than expected, raw material prices fluctuate; animal epidemic risk.

Smart funds killed back the carbine. This technology leader stock was net bought 4.

7 billion

“Smart funds” killed back the carbine. This technology leader stock was net bought 4.

7 billion

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  ”Smart money” kills the carbines!

Late in the sweep, the technology leader was net bought 4.

700 million, there are still many hot stocks grabbed, technology stocks to revive?

  Source: E company official micro original Wang Jiming, the technology stock leader who has been adjusted for two consecutive days, has been bottomed out by Beijing Capital today!

  After the plunge pattern on February 26, A-shares continued to open the shock adjustment pattern on February 27, especially the hot technology stocks represented by semiconductors and components in the early stage became the “heavy disaster areas” for these two days.

  But today (February 27), the market is also changing quietly. Smart capital “Northbound Fund” suddenly inflowed late in the last few days, especially the Shenzhen Stock Connect became obvious, and it was still apparently sold by Shenzhen Stock Connect yesterday.Zhaozhao is easy to innovate, with net purchases exceeding 4 billion today.

In addition, in the two days of the big drop adjustment, the most net purchases of institutional seats are still the most popular technology stocks in the early stage, especially for Tongfu Microelectronics, which has a continuous limit drop.

  It can be polished from specific sub-sectors, and the semiconductor industry fell down between the two days.

Among the 50 Shenwan semiconductor companies, 45 overlapped within the two-day period from February 26 to 27. If you remove the 3 new stock companies that just listed in February, only * ST insured (rights) andDuring the period, Shengbang shares increased slightly 杭州桑拿网 by 2.

5% and 1.

0%.

  However, despite the sharp drop in the past two days, the technology companies represented by semiconductors in A-shares have continued to increase significantly after the Spring Festival. Among the 50 companies in the Shenwan Semiconductor Industry, after the Spring Festival until February 27, companies that have increased more than 20%There are still 19.

  After the “bottom-sweeping” in the north of the capital, after experiencing yesterday’s plunge and today’s sharp shock, the direction of “smart capital” quietly changed in the late afternoon.

  Although the Shanghai Stock Connect and Shenzhen Stock Connect and other northbound funds on February 27 continued the net replacement situation of the previous few days, the situation in the previous few days could be more than 5 billion. On February 27, northbound funds were net today.At least US $ 1 billion, of which the Shanghai Stock Exchange has a net decrease of 9.
.

8.7 billion, Shenzhen Stock Connect net decreased by 0.

7.1 billion yuan.

  Especially at the end of today, there was a significant inflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect. According to the real-time flow of Shenzhen Stock Connect, at about 2:40 pm, Shenzhen Stock Connect still had a net alternating state of over 1.2 billion, but then it suddenly accelerated inflows.

The final close was only a net alternating 0 throughout the day.

7.1 billion yuan, which is more than 1.1 billion yuan in the last 20 minutes.

  Judging from the top ten stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on February 27, the Shanghai Stock Connect fund bought Zhaoyi Innovation with a net purchase amount of up to 4.

US $ 6.6 billion, far more than Guizhou Moutai (1.

15 ppm), Zhaoyi Chuangxin’s daily limit fell yesterday, and continues to plunge 7 today.

77% of the companies represented in this round of technology stocks.

  In addition, among the top ten trading stocks of Shenzhen Stock Connect, three companies with net purchases exceeding 100 million yuan also placed popular stocks in the current round. They are Ningde Times, Lixun Precision, TCL Technology, and net purchases.Is 4.

01 billion yuan, 1.

3.9 billion yuan, 1.

04 billion.

  In addition, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange special seat also appeared in the top three of the net purchase amount of the Dragon Tiger List on February 27, the net purchase amount of the seat on the Dragon Tiger List on the day was 1.

5.7 billion, ranking third in net purchases.

  From the data of the Dragon Tiger Ranking, in the two days of A-share adjustment, the net purchases of institutional seats ranked first, of which the net purchases on February 26 were 2 respectively.

82 ppm, net purchases on February 27 were 1.

6.7 billion.

Among them, the top three companies with net purchases during the period from February 26th to 27th were Su Daweige, Northern Huachuang, Tongfu Microelectronics, with net purchases of 2.

6.3 billion, 2.
4.3 billion and 1.
At 14 trillion US dollars, these three companies are among the hot stocks penetrated by the previous gains, and Tongfu Microelectronics fell on two consecutive days on February 26 and February 27.

  However, from Tongfu Microelectronics, it is also obvious that there are differences of opinion between polishing mechanisms.

The company ‘s February 27 ranking shows that among the top five bought seats, one of the four institutions has a special seat for Shenzhen Stock Connect. Among the top five seats sold, there are also two institutions’ special seats and Shenzhen stocks.Special seats.

  In any case, technology stocks are still hot today, as reflected in ETF trading.

On February 27, technology ETFs still merged into the top of the A-share ETF transaction value list.

Among them, China Securities CSI 5G communication theme ETF turnover 38.

3.4 billion, ranking first; Huaxia Guozheng Semiconductor Chip ETF, Cathay Pacific CES semiconductor industry ETF turnover ranked second and third.

From the average daily turnover of the four trading days this week, the average daily turnover of the three technology ETFs mentioned above has reached 52.

1.3 billion, 36.

4.9 billion, 31.

USD 9.1 billion, covering the top three A-share ETFs, significantly exceeding the average daily turnover of major broad-based index ETFs.

  Changes in the investment path of technology stocks?

  In the opinion of Zhang Qiyao, a strategic analyst at Guosheng Securities, although the computer and electronics sectors have become apparent in the past two days, the major logic and trend of technological growth has deteriorated and destroyed, which is still the main stage.

Although some value blue chips already have mid- to long-term allocation value, it is still too early to have a systematic style switch.

  Guosheng Securities believes that technological growth is still the main stage.

After the outbreak of the epidemic, the market is full of growth, and the growth of science and technology is “renewed.” The core lies in the “herd effect” decay in the retail market.

It is particularly noteworthy that “buying funds” has become an important channel for residents to enter the market and an important support for the growth of science and technology.

From the perspective of current institutional positions, technological growth is the focus of new fund allocation.

  However, Juju Investment Gu said that from an estimation perspective, after the continuous rise, the GEM has reached the historical forecast, which means that from a security price perspective, this is no longer a safe place.

However, based on historical conventions, the estimated historical highs are often exponential and continuous highs, but this state has a certain continuous period, and there is still room for upward movement during this period.

  In addition, there are also brokers who are more optimistic about the infrastructure sector. Huachuang Securities believes that since this year is the 13th five-year closing year, the source of capital for the infrastructure can be guaranteed and the funds will also enter the real place. Therefore, under the stable growth tone, the infrastructure sector has a configurationValue; Minsheng Securities pointed out that the estimated average value of the steel, coal, real estate, and construction industries is close to the bottom level of the market in early January 2019. The short-term resources and infrastructure real estate sectors are cost-effective, and they focus on the trading opportunities brought by the rise in resource prices.
  In response to today’s volatile market, a market analyst in Shenzhen told an e-company reporter: “The investment path of technology stocks is changing.

He pointed out that, on the whole, technology stocks have accumulated a panic atmosphere that caused extreme losses yesterday. These new hot sectors (infrastructure stocks, consumer stocks) have yet to see the characteristics that can continue to lead the market growth. In essence, it is estimatedAfter semiconductors, components make up.

He also pointed out that although the technology stock market is definitely not finished, the hype line of technology stocks has begun to change. The entire sector has risen from chickens and dogs to the structural market, and internally, it has started to enter the software service field from hardware.Software services are also compatible with the accelerated commercial use of 5G. In addition to 5G’s infrastructure, a large number of hardware equipment and substrates are required, as well as various software services and information services such as network security and security monitoring.

Double Star New Material (002585) 2018 Annual Report Comments: The profitability of the optical film project will continue to increase

Double Star New Material (002585) 2018 Annual Report Comments: The profitability of the optical film project will continue to increase

Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved operating income of 38 in 2018.

580,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.

61%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

21 ppm, an increase of 330 in ten years.

47%; basic return is 0.

2779 yuan / share, an increase of 309 in ten years.

88%; ending balance of fixed assets is 33.

29 trillion, an increase of 32 earlier.

66%, mainly due to the completion and commissioning of some 200 million flat optical film projects, due to the transfer of construction in progress to fixed assets.

Investment points: In 2018, the supply and demand of the polyester film industry improved. The average annual price and gross profit margin increased compared to the same period, and the company’s performance increased significantly.

The industry was expanding disorderly before 2014, and a large excess of production capacity caused a serious surplus. In the fierce competition, some companies gradually withdrew.

While downstream demand and exports have maintained steady growth, the supply and demand of the polyester film industry has gradually shifted from severe oversupply to supply and demand balance.

The rapid growth of the demand side is mainly driven by the widespread use of packaging and technology applications.

Its versatility and the rapid development of end-use technology have created new opportunities for BOPET films.

Among them, the photovoltaic industry is the fastest growing area for BOPET film demand.

In addition, displays and optical films are another area with a fast average annual growth rate, mainly due to the rapid expansion of the smartphone, tablet and flat-panel TV markets.

In terms of prices, the prices of some products have reached a new five-year high, which has added pressure to cost growth, and spreads have increased at the same time.

From the perspective of the company’s product profitability, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for the company’s products in 2018 was 17.

28%, an increase of about 5 units over 2017.

It is expected that under the influence of factors such as the increase in raw material and product prices, sales, and a slight decline in 2019, gross profit margins and profit margins will decline slightly from the previous month.

In the future, except for the possibility of resumption of work in Jiangsu, Europe and Asia, there is no other news of additional capacity. Therefore, under the condition of stable demand, BOPET film supply and demand are tightly balanced, and the decline in prices and gross profit margins will be narrowed.

As a major producer of polyester film, the company also needs to increase production capacity, and future growth is expected.

The company’s main textile polyester film research and development, production and sales, polyester film production capacity of over 30 microns, of which the pre-market production capacity of 12.

8 Initially, the investment projects included 3 new and new functional polyester film projects in 2011, 12 new and new functional polyester film projects in 2013, 5 solar cell packaging material substrate projects in 2014, and 2016.100 million square meters of optical film project and recently put into production an annual output of 200 million square meters of optical film project.

In addition, there are 0.

6 boot PVC functional film and 1.

6 cathode aluminized film.

The company’s main products, in addition to a wide variety of packaging for various types of food, beverages, medicines and daily necessities, have gradually expanded to LCD display, smart phones, touch screens, automobiles, building energy-saving glass photovoltaic new energy and other fields.

Under the dual factors of steady growth in downstream demand and increase in product price difference, the company’s main business sales of polyester film reached 36.

74 trillion, accounting for 95 of the company’s total operating income.

25%, an annual increase of 29.

99%; gross profit margin reaches 16.

64%, an increase of about 5 times compared to 2017; the increase in production and sales is expected to increase, and the increase in output is 12%.

77%, sales increase by 19 per year.

09%; the company’s performance achieved substantial growth.

The company’s main products include optical film liquid crystal display, smart phones, touch panels and other markets. In 2018, the company’s annual output of 200 million square meters of optical film project was successfully put into production. At present, the company’s optical film products have obtained Samsung’s built-in 天津夜网 international first-line brand certificationAnd available worldwide.

In addition, the “Ultra HD Video Industry Development Action Plan (2019-2022)”, issued in March 2019, plans more than 40% of the 4K TV sales ratio in 2020. The growth in HD TV demand is expected to drive the consumption of polyester optical films.

Earnings forecast and investment rating: We are optimistic about the rebound in prices and gross profit margins of the polyester film industry due to improved supply and demand and the company’s 2 billion square meters of optical film projects, but we also notice that the decline in raw material polyester prices has caused the companyProduct prices have improved and spreads have narrowed. We expect 2018?In 2020, the company’s net profit attributable to the mother will be 4.
47/5.

14/5.

6.3 billion yuan, with EPS of 0.

39/0.

44/0.

49 yuan / share, corresponding to the latest closing price of PE were 16.

41/14.

26/13.

03, maintaining the “overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: The new project puts into operation less than expected risk, the demand for polyester film is less than expected risk, and the risk of product price decline.